The Cha-cha option

By Ellen Tordesillas
August 15, 2008

We all knew that Gloria Arroyo has no plans of giving up her stolen presidency but her temerity last Monday pushing for a shift to federal system of government, followed up by her press secretary, Jesus Dureza, left us flabbergasted.
A friend pointed out to us that Arroyo actually announced it last July 29 in her state- of -the -nation address but we were too busy with VAT and the 50 centavos text (which turned out to be a big lie).

We checked again her Sona and yes, it was there in the part where she mentioned about the Mindanao She said, “ A comprehensive peace has eluded us for half a century. But last night, differences on the tough issue of ancestral domain were resolved. Yes, there are political dynamics among the people of Mindanao. Let us sort them out with the utmost sobriety, patience and restraint. I ask Congress to act on the legislative and political reforms that will lead to a just and lasting peace during our term of office.”
Changing the Constitution is what Arroyo meant by “legislative and political reforms”. But then, why did the House of Representatives, with majority of the members under her wily thumb, acting only now? La Union Rep. Victor Ortega, chair of the House Committee on constitutional amendments said Tuesday he will be convening a meeting on the resolution filed by Cebu Rep. Antonio Cuenco to convene a constituent assembly to change the form of government from a unitary presidential to a federal system.
The answer lies in the many things that don’t quite fit in the last few weeks. Remember four days before the Sona, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front pulled out the talks in Kuala Lumpur when the government bactracked from its earlier commitment of holding the plebiscite in the more than 700 barangays that would be included in the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity aside from the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao?
On the eve of the Sona, former Armed Forces chief Hermogenes Esperon, now presidential adviser on peace process, announced a “breakthrough” that enabled Arroyo to announce in her Sona “Last night, differences on the tough issue of ancestral domain were resolved.”
An source close to the peace talks said the “breakthrough” was nothing more than the government agreeing to the demands of the MILF. Which makes one wonder why did they try to backtrack in the first place?
The source said the government really had no intention to sign the agreement but they want to maintain the hypocrisy in front of the MILF and other countries involved in the peace talks. The “Supreme Court scenario” was part of the plan.
Actually, the source said the government was hoping that the opposition would bring the issue to the Supreme Court. But the opposition was slow in reacting that they had to have Vice Gov. Manny Piñol, an Arroyo ally, to do it. But his petition only asked for copies of the GRP-MILF MOA and more consultations.
It was only later that Sen. Mar Roxas and former Senate President Franklin Drilon filed a more substantive opposition to the MOA.
With the suspension of the signing of the MOA, the government was expecting the MILF to attack communities to justify Arroyo’s declaration of a state of emergency. But the MILF didn’t.
The source said the MILF occupation of the barangays in Pikit and Midsayap which was reported by Piñol and the military didn’t happen after the MOA signing was aborted in KL on Aug,. 5. As Local Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno said in the press conference where they issued a 24 hour ultimatum for the MILF to withdraw, the rebels were there some two months before. “The MILF-and the Christians in the area have co-existed peacefully,” the source said.
Apparently, the MILF sense Malacañang’s ploy of making them the excuse for inciting hostilities to justify Arroyo’s emergency rule that could lead to her staying in power beyond 2010. They are not taking the bait. Instead of engaging in an all-out war with government forces, they opted for “repositioning” of the forces under one its most loyal commander, Ombra Kato.
Without a full-blown war in Mindanao and time running out for her, Arroyo has to crank up her Cha-Cha train. But with Cha-Cha, she may yet cause in a bigger scale, turmoil she has wished in Muslim Mndanao.